It’s not the President of the United States, and it’s not the Congress, in case you are working on your best answer to the question. It’s someone who rarely makes headlines and is almost never asked for an interview on mainstream media’s prime time shows. But from the firsthand account of former CIA official John Kiriakou, we get a clear answer as to who calls the shots in launching wars in the Middle East.
In his recent interview on Dalton Fischer Podcast, Kiriakou recalled the time in May 2002 when he was newly made executive assistant within the CIA and was called to a meeting of top military-intel brass attended by some key George W. Bush officials.
But before entering the meeting, Kiriakou was made to sign some secrecy agreements in another room where he learnt a shocking thing after he had signed the papers: next year, America would invade Iraq, overthrow Saddam Hussein, and construct the largest Air Force base so that the American air assets could be moved from Saudi Arabia to Iraq. The purpose of this planned move was quite extraordinary – clearing Saudi Arabia of the presence of American military as it could likely be used by Jihadists like Osama Bin Laden as damnation for the Muslim holy land.
“The decision has been made and the battle lines drawn,” Kiriakou recounts what he was told, reminding that he can talk about it now since those documents have been declassified. Why the mainstream media has not been all over them is likely common sense to those who know the loyalties and priorities of media.
The meeting was chaired by Bush’s Vice President Dick Cheney, Condoleezza Rice (national security advisor to Bush), Colin Powell (Secretary of State), General Richard Myers (Chairman of the Joint Chiefs), General Peter Pace (Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs), Donald Rumsfeld (Secretary of Defense), and the commander of CENTCOM at the time, General Anthony Zinni, and CIA Director George Tenet.
It was in the discussion during the meeting that the CENTCOM commander spilled his plan for the Middle East – before invading Iraq, he planned to take Iran first. The CIA chief was surprised or confused to hear the General say that if all went well, they would be in Tehran by August 2002.
While planning the Iraq War, the National Security Council was already drafting plans for Iran.
A day before the Iraq invasion, I took notes for then-CIA Director George Tenet and learned of plans to invade Iran by August 2002.
From my interview with @DaltonPodcast pic.twitter.com/2WMpsbP5sP
— John Kiriakou (@JohnKiriakou) June 19, 2025
It didn’t go as the CENTCOM commander had planned and the Iraq invasion also didn’t play fully to America’s advantage though Saddam Hussain was toppled and it essentially benefitted Iran as Iraq eventually elected a Shia-friendly government (America had previously supported Saddam Hussain in his war against Iran). But the question of who decides these wars is answered in Kiriakou’s account. The decision had been made already by May 2002 and the Congressional vote followed in October, both Republicans and Democrats voting to invade Iraq based on the false reports of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WOMD) in possession of Saddam’s government. It was the decision of the CENTCOM commander. The Congress and President run the theatre after the top military generals decide – not to mention the big money involved and no real audits carried out.
This is the same playbook currently being adapted into action in the Trump administration. The lack of consistency in the narrative of the Trump administration is the result of a divided Pentagon, as some conservative analysts see it. The current CENTCOM commander Michael Erik Kurilla reportedly wants America to attack Iran. Appointed by Biden as the CENTCOM commander in April 2022, Kurilla has only two weeks of his military career left as he is set to retire. He has kept an Iran war plan for a long time on his mind, and analysts think he wants to rush America into this war before he leaves the office next month.
However, Trump’s Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine are not in favor of US directly involving in Israel-Iran war. It may be an interesting coincidence that Trump has given Iran two weeks to accept the US terms of a peace deal, which is about the time left in Kurilla’s retirement.
By this analysis, the ultimate decision to attack Iran is thus left to this crucial fortnight of war versus peace while Israel is working hard to drag America into it. Hopefully sanity will prevail and the Trump admin would decide against joining the war while proving that the President indeed holds real power and is not in the service of CENTCOM.
